Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 13.927721 15.918591 18.060507 20.532289 23.301955 26.305497 29.804956
2025-05-25 10.957817 13.654303 16.778381 20.649114 25.298716 30.685742 37.380110
2025-06-01 9.383612 12.363101 15.982598 20.672952 26.556439 33.655773 42.830047
2025-06-08 8.069050 11.184882 15.135895 20.465880 27.413512 36.101630 47.718332
2025-06-15 7.211223 10.444278 14.697885 20.636016 28.631555 38.933592 53.104187
2025-06-22 6.658155 10.031903 14.619624 21.222178 30.370402 42.470459 59.529962
2025-06-29 5.936235 9.295323 14.011769 21.001561 30.955014 44.451885 63.929476
2025-07-06 5.096682 8.296090 12.934776 20.012798 30.368102 44.757219 66.000495
2025-07-13 4.780436 8.041987 12.900918 20.499109 31.869454 47.993091 72.249388
2025-07-20 4.473247 7.767974 12.805900 20.870558 33.200486 51.023276 78.314410
2025-07-27 4.098339 7.347866 12.448063 20.804989 33.856060 53.081224 83.035657
2025-08-03 3.732596 6.906469 12.017415 20.585068 34.244557 54.737528 87.206660
2025-08-10 3.446293 6.579231 11.753764 20.624466 35.055568 57.094987 92.585706
2025-08-17 3.223114 6.340712 11.616267 20.854948 36.174770 59.967305 98.869570
2025-08-24 2.979471 6.040511 11.347294 20.839516 36.880101 62.206920 104.241657
2025-08-31 2.730233 5.705447 10.990139 20.644558 37.268180 63.947568 108.884016
2025-09-07 2.561889 5.505616 10.852485 20.811251 38.254742 66.668070 115.167130
2025-09-14 2.469841 5.444108 10.956489 21.403551 39.984621 70.653739 123.627287
2025-09-21 2.272173 5.154418 10.619279 21.180664 40.289797 72.299142 128.321142
2025-09-28 1.994267 4.673806 9.886634 20.184548 39.177510 71.519147 128.956913
2025-10-05 1.921685 4.614417 9.953877 20.674512 40.727997 75.289304 137.329165
2025-10-12 1.840249 4.528269 9.961499 21.048820 42.081677 78.767070 145.321177
2025-10-19 1.716818 4.338323 9.748206 20.982742 42.619072 80.843607 150.979280